CO2 emissions and extreme weather, two words that everyone is talking about, from the newspaper, politicians, influencer, at work it seems like everyone have made the connection between those two words. Whenever news about an extreme weather phenomenon is shown in the media, the talk slowly drift towards the increasing emissions of CO2. The news channel will then interview a science about the weather and how CO2 emission is connected to the weather phenomenon. The interview ends with the same conclusion every time, that politicians and world leaders need to make a change before it’s too late, and future generations must pay the price.
While this seems extreme, this has been the norm for the last decade, where extreme weather is due to the increase in CO2 emissions, and nothing have been done to stop this. But how can we be sure that the CO2 emissions is to blame for this, and nothing have been done.
In this blog and the next to follow, it will be analyzed weather or not there’s a correlation between the weather and CO2, or if it’s just a coincidence.
From the year 1960 to present, it can be seen there’s a steady increase in the emission of CO2 emissions. With no sign of it slowing down, in fact it looks like it keeps increasing – despite all the news about the damage to the environment and changes it will bring to our life and future generations – so what happen during this time.
The time following the post World War II economic boom also know as the golden age, this was a time with economic growth due to various factores like stored-up demand, low-cost labor, and significant technological advancement. The various states also began to invest in big infrastructural projects which resulted in a positive investment spiral. This growth resulted in a demand for energy in form of electricity, heating, transportation, and food production, this was provided by using coal, oil, and natural gas, which led to a higher fuel consumption and thereby higher CO2 emissions.
The golden age would last until 1973 where the oil crisis started, where an oil embargo was imposed by the Arab oil producers against the USA and other countries who had supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. This was also the first time, that oil was being used as a political weapon to press for demand from western countries.
The embargo would be lifted in 1974, but it’s seen as one of the first sign of inflationary pressures and stagflation experienced in the 1970s. Even though countries began to introduce emergency measures like speed restriction, bans on Sunday driving and limited petrol station opening times during the 1973, this decade would still see an increase in CO2 emission . The world faced one more oil crisis in 1979, known as the second oil crisis, which can be read about more in the next post
These two oil crisis changed many countries approach to energy as a whole, leading to significant changes within these countries. Ministry of Energy and agencies was created to be responsible for energy supply. Energy policies was being formulated, both to reduce oil dependency, but also to create awareness in the population of the energy problems. Energy data was being collected in a systematic way for the first time, leading to long range analyses based on supply factors. Furthermore, countries began to look into other alternatives energy sources, thereby starting a new green wave to produce energy.
Most notably in recent years, when it comes to a reduction in CO2 emissions is the financial crisis from 2007-2009 known as the Great Recession, and COVID-19.
For the Great Recession, the decline seen here is due to the reduced industrial production and a slowdown in economic growth. For COVID-19, the same is true here, but more to the lock down imposed in countries throughout the world, which led to reduced activities in form of travels and reduced industrial production. This reduction was due to decreased economic activities, and not proactive political agenda to reduce CO2 emissions.
As the graph below illustrates, the path of global CO2 emissions from 1960 to 2020 reveals a world dealing with the dual challenges of development and environmental sustainability. This rise, which is dominated by major industrial powers, and their counterpart in the form of the substantially lower emissions from developing nations, will be explored deeper in the next two sections.
The top 5 of the higest emitters and the top 5 lowest emitters have been selected from the year 2022.
Top 5 highest CO2 emitters: China, US, India, Russia and Japen.
Top 5 lowest CO2 emitters: Tuvalu, Nauru, Kiribati, Sao Tome and Principe, and Liechtenstein.
As discussed above the top 5 countries outside of EU, when it comes to CO2 emissions is China, US, India, Russia and Japan. The graph below illustrates, how they compare against each other and EU, when it comes to CO2 emissions.
For the EU, sine the two-oil crisis back in 1973 and 1979 discussed earlier, resulted in a plan to reduce dependency on oil, this showcase that’s its going in the right direction. Furthermore, EU have made significant advancement in reducing CO2 emissions, this is done in several ways. EU have set a Climate Law that set a legal binding target for climate neutrality by 2050, with an 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2040 compared to 1990. Another is a combination of regulatory frameworks, which include EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Theres also a strict standard for CO2 emissions from cars and vans, these are just some that have helped in reducing CO2 emissions.
When the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, it can be seen on the graph with the steep decline in CO2 emissions. This sudden change in political and economic led to a steep decline in industrial and agricultural activities, which led to this large reduction in CO2 emissions. It was especially the transition from a centrally planned to a market-driven economy caused a decrease in meat consumption from 32 to 14 kilos of beef per person annually, and a reduction in livestock numbers contributed to this drop. Furthermore, 62 million hectares of agricultural land was abandoned, which led to an increase in carbon sequestration, as these lands was reverted back to natural vegetation, and essential serves as gigantic carbon sink.
United States haven’t reduced it’s CO2 emissions more than most other countries over the last two decades, this is due to a combination of factors including shifts in the energy sector, regulatory changes, and economic influence. For example, the transition from coal to natural gas and renewable has been one of the main forces to reduce CO2. The reduction has also been done due to technological advancement and economic factors that make natural gas and renewables more competitive.
Theres also been a political push for this, among the most noticeable is the Clean Air Act, which was initiated under the Obama administration, this plan aims to reduce CO2 from power plants, although is did had legal challenges and modifications following different administrations. US also join The Paris Agreement, that was a commitment to reduce the CO2 emissions significantly.
Throughout decades Japan have remain relative stable in CO2 emissions, this is due to a various factors, this includes energy policy shifts, technological advancements in the automotive and energy sectors, and significant national efforts towards carbon neutrality.
Like EU, Japan has been focused on implementing policies to reduce CO2 emissions, with a focus on enhancing energy efficiency of buildings and transportation.
For example, Japan transportation sector contributed 206 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2019, this was 18.6% of all emissions nationwide. Since then the transport sector has significant improves in electrification, with some of the manufacturers committing to increase the production of electric and hybrid vehicles by 2030.
The Japanese government has also promoted clean energy through its Clean Energy Strategy, which tries to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and a 46% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2030. To do this, they invest in renewable energy sources and technology such as hydrogen fuel, which is seen as a key component of Japan’s future energy and decarbonization efforts.
As can be seen from the graph, there’s a significant increase in CO2 emissions for China and India, and based on this book it’s mainly attributed to the rapid economic growth and development processes. Both countries have been undergoing massive industrialization, which has significantly increased their energy demands, primarily met by coal. Despite efforts to incorporate renewable energy sources, the amount of energy needed makes a quick transition difficult. Moreover, both nations are striving to improve the living standards of their large populations, leading to greater personal and commercial energy use. Infrastructure projects, manufacturing, and transportation sectors also contribute heavily to the emissions profiles. As developing nations, the balance between economic development and environmental sustainability presents a significant policy and practical challenge for both China and India.
This is also the reason, why India and China have defended theme self numerous times, saying they have as much right to develop and increase it’s wealth; that there needs to be a balanced view on global responsibility.
Tuvalu, Nauru , and Kiribati, are three Pacific island nations and have very low CO2 emissions mainly due to their small size and low levels of industrial production. The economic for these countries are in general limited, and they rely heavily on external financial aid. Although not emitting high levels of CO2, theses countries is vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as the rising sea levels and increasing storm intensity, which threaten their very existence.
Sao Tome and Principe is an African island, which have a limited industrial base. Instead, the economy is primarily based on agriculture, with cacao being a significant export. It’s a lower-middle-income country, which struggles with issues like poverty and limited access to technology. The climate impact on this island is the sea level rising, which can increase the risk of flooding.
Contradicting with the above nations is Liechtenstein, which is a very wealthy, high-income country despite its small size. It’s a country that have a highly developed economy focusing on high-tech industries, financial services, and manufacturing, which also lead to a higher CO2 emission per capita compared to the island nations above. Due to its position and is actively engaged in conservation on how to reduce CO2 emissions through sustainable practices and policies.
From the figure below, it can be seen that Germany is the highest CO2 emitter in the EU, this is likely due to its large industrial base and high dependence on coal for much of this period. On the other end, Malta emerges as the lowest emitter, this can be due to its small size, lower industrial activity, and reliance on tourism rather than heavy industries.
In the next blog, the focus will be on the highest and lowest CO2 emitters in the EU, and how they have managed to reduce their CO2 emissions.
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Photographs by GreenGeeks.